The steel sector represented 12% of UK industrial emissions in 2016 and . Copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050. - Robin Latchem - March 30, 2022 Global production of crude steel production in February was 142.7 million tonnes, down 5.7% on February 2021. World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 161.0 million tonnes (Mt) in March 2022, a 5.8% decrease compared to March 2021. Hydrogen-based steel production will eventually account for 10% of the total steel output or 232 million tonnes (Mt) by 2050. EAF production will increase at a constant rate from 63 Mt in 2010 to 153 Mt in. The USS logo,Best of Both andBest for All are registered trademarksand X is a service markof. The model tracks the functional age of facilities. However, evolving green steel goals are altering the supply landscape and steelmakers are under pressure from stakeholders to reduce their reliance on conventional (highly polluting) blast furnace route and adopt low-emission alternatives. However, with global steel giants like ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel, Posco, and Chinas Buowu Steel Group pledging themselves to net zero emissions of their own accord, this primary production, itself will also face dramatic transformation. 305-315, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016 . Rethink Energy currently predicts that it will rise by 43% over the next three decades. Commercial SR-BOF refers to smelting reduction without CCUS (COREX and FINEX). These economies will look to pare down emissions by switching to EAF, which is three-quarters less emission-intensive than the blast furnace route. Steel Roadmap for a Low Carbon Europe 2050 3.1. Worldwide, the scenario envisions, both routes would use scrap to maximum capacity: 25 percent for the oxygen routes and almost 100 percent for the electric routes. However, with carbon capture technologies currently failing to realize their stated potential, hydrogen-powered DRI is increasingly becoming the favorite for the future production of green steel, with commercialization expected in the late 2020s. 153 million tonnes Annual production of steel The sector produces on average 153 million tonnes of finished steel per year. In November 2019, U. S. Steel announced our first greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 20% reduction in GHG intensity by 2030 from a 2018 baseline. Learn about U. S. Steelfrom our direction, our people and passion for innovation to our community philosophy, ethics policies, locations and more. Steel is an important resource in many industries. Improved steel-scrap usage will decrease the demand on natural resources and lessen the overall environmental impact. UK 150). Keeping a Green Line. 2.2. India and Southeast Asia will in turn worsen their emission profile as their crude steel production rises through the BF-BOF route. Steel as a Model for a Sustainable Metal Industry in 2050, Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, The CEOs Dilemma: Business Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty, Mining and Metals in a Sustainable World 2050, consistently assessing their position in a more sustainable world and reflecting upon different scenarios for the future. Steel Production in China increased to 87000 Thousand Tonnes in September from 83900 Thousand Tonnes in August of 2022. WSD seeks to understand how the "pricing . (See Exhibit 3.) The 20 companies, which together represent 30% of global steel production, are currently expected to reduce emissions by less than 50% by 2050, falling behind the 65% reduction standard set by the . Please contact [emailprotected] for more information. 2.4. Such changes would happen only if economically feasiblethat is, if prices for secondary (recycled) material become more attractive relative to primary extracted material. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and those described from time to time in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) output will decline 0.5% annually until 2050, whereas EAF output could increase 2.3% yearly in the same period. ByRoland Haslehner,Benjamin Stelter, andNicolas Osio. Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. (See Exhibit 1. Recent reductions in Chinese melting activity are the primary reason for the downgraded figure. Steel is the most used metal in our modern world, but its production is highly energy- and carbon- intensive. CO. 2 . For mining players, the different scenarios mean different things. The results show that China's steel production will rise and peak in the year 2020 at 860 million tons (Mt) per year for the base-case scenario and 680 Mt for the advanced energy-efficiency scenario. Wood Mackenzie estimates Chinese emissions to halve between 2021 and 2050, and a major proportion of emissions reduction will come from the projected fall in steel output. For more than a century, the people of U. S. Steel have been our companys greatest strength. Management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the time made. Projected global crude steel production 2020-2022. Technology assessment. The two scenarios share the same underlying steel-demand assumptions, with production overcapacity remaining prevalent for the next decade. Metals and Mining Industry, Steel Production in India decreased to 9900 Thousand Tonnes in September from 10200 Thousand Tonnes in August of 2022. By 2050, EAF will account for 48% of the technology share used in steelmaking, up from 30% last year, making it almost on par with the traditional BOF method. Steel industrys carbon emissions is expected to fall 30% by 2050 compared to 2021 levels, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq:VRSK). These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties described on this webpage and in Item 1A. The global steel market attained a value of nearly USD 841 billion, driven by the product's properties of durability, malleability, and recyclability. This goal will entail additional EAF deployment and other developments in the industry. Wood Mackenzie projects that 40% of DRI produced by mid-century will be hydrogen-based. Things are slowly swinging back in the right direction, according to this forecast. 3. The Melbourne, Australia-based miner forecasts surging demand for wind and solar farm equipment to boost steel demand by 2% in 2030 and by 4% in 2050. While the Covid-19 pandemic did not contribute to a noticeable slump in. Integrating EAF capabilities into our footprint is key to achieving our 2030 GHG goal. Construction, automotive to return to 2019 level in 2022. This is equivalent to a 2022 increase in steel consumption of ~41 million tonnes [See Worldsteel, Short Range Outlook October 2021]. China is expected to take the lead in reducing absolute emissions. Work by the Energy Transition Commission shows that it is technically feasible to decarbonise primary steel production 6. Submit it today to: WSD@aist.org. Not only does scrap steel eliminate the need to undertake emission-intensive mining practices for iron ore, but when processed through an electric arc furnace (EAF), as opposed to the BF/BOF route, both emissions and energy consumption fall by around 75%. Value chains will shift. However, nearly two-thirds of incremental supply between 2021 and 2050 will materialise from India and Southeast Asia cushioning the negative impact on hot metal., Short-term analytics (previously Genscape), Supply Chain Intelligence platform (previously PowerAdvocate Energy Intelligence Platform), Steel industry emissions to decline 30% by 2050. We expect to do our part by partnering to find new business approaches and develop new technologies, as well as advocating for collaboration and support of governments, trade agencies, and other organizations. Mining and metal companies need to monitor these developments, consistently assessing their position in a more sustainable world and reflecting upon different scenarios for the future. This page has Steel Production values for India. The truth lies in the age of our current steel stock by which we mean the buildings currently erected, and cars currently being driven on our streets. Apart from being produced by raw materials, steel may be . Read More Steel Price Forecast FAQs How much does Steel cost in 2023? Global Environ. Forecasts & estimates; Scenarios; Monthly & real-time; Policies; Technologies & innovation; Simulations & calculators; Create a free IEA account to download our reports or subcribe to a paid service. Please update it. Both scenarios rely on the same assumptions about the underlying steel demand. Market forecasts for the next ten years complete the report. The Melbourne, Australia-based miner forecasts surging demand for wind and solar farm equipment to boost steel demand by 2 percent in 2030 and by 4 percent in 2050. Because of this, while secondary steel production, using scrap as a feedstock, will increase by 134% between 2020 and 2050, it is unlikely that primary production will peak until the early 2040s. Brussels, 26 October 2022 - The continuing deterioration of the EU economy following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis is leading to a recession severely impacting industrial sectors. 310,000 Highly skilled workforce Alternatively call us on +44(0)1179257019. Wood Mackenzie research director Malan Wu said: The global share of electric arc furnace (EAF) in steelmaking is rising with policy shifts and increasing focus on scrap use. The miner expects global steel consumption to . Find out about the world, a region, or a country . Steel Price Prediction 2031 The price of 1 Steel is expected to reach at a minimum level of $0.045 in 2031. The growth of short- and medium-term battery storage, to enable carbon-free power when renewables or other carbon-free options are not available. The policy is also applicable to purchase of iron & steel products by private agencies for fulfilling an EPC contract and capital goods required for manufacturing iron & steel products. ADVERTISEMENT Sign-in to our platforms to access our extensive research, our latest insight, data and analytics and to connect to our industry experts. Cobalt production could also increase indirectly because of an increase in the demand for manganese to cater to the production of steel. Scrap-based EF refers to electric arc furnaces and induction furnaces fed mostly by scrap, with India and China being exceptions, both having substantial iron charges to their induction furnaces. India and Southeast Asia, the key demand drivers, will buck this trend as most capacity additions are via the BF-BOF route. Demand for scrap steel will increase dramatically. STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario, SDS = Sustainable Development Scenario. We have already made progress in this area with our acquisition of Big River Steel and completion of the construction of the Fairfield Works Tubular EAF, which resulted in approximately a 10-15% reduction in our GHG emissions intensity. Global crude steel production by process route and scenario, 2019-2050 - Chart and data by the International Energy Agency. Currencies. This is why we offer carefully calculated and dependable 12-month forecasts for individual steel products across all major steel producing regions. Steel's Contribution to a Low Carbon Europe 2050 2.1. This includes construction and manufacturing, which are the. Other examples of footprint changes include the permanent idling of our Great Lakes Works steelmaking and hot rolling operations. Innovative SR-BOF with CCUS includes application of CCUS to existing smelting reduction concepts (COREX and FINEX) and novel smelting reduction concepts with CCUS (e.g. This scenario explores a worldwide switch from primary production to scrap recycling. It might seem unintuitive to directly address steelmaking in an energy publication, but in terms of global decarbonization, the need to integrate all heavy emitting industries into energy-based thinking is essential. "For 2022 and 2023, the outlook is highly uncertain. Bangladesh, DR Congo, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Tanzania, and Vietnam countries that will account for 36% of the worlds population by 2050 are all yet to see peak steel demand per capita and will drive an increase in global steel use from 1.83 gigatons per year in 2020 to more than 3 gigatons in 2050. The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand will grow by 5.8% in 2021 to reach 1,874.0 million tonnes (Mt), after declining by 0.2% in 2020. Steel Production in the United States decreased to 6600 Thousand Tonnes in September from 7000 Thousand Tonnes in August of 2022. Wood Mackenzie projects that 40% of DRI produced by mid-century will . You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. 14th December 2021 MEPS has lowered its annual crude steel production forecast to 1,940 million tonnes, for 2021. Change, 39 (2016), pp. Indicators. In FY22, exports and imports of finished steel stood at 13.49 MT and 4.67 MT, respectively. Steel provides an excellent proxy for understanding the implications of these changes for the mining and metal industry as a whole. 100% H2 DRI-EAF comprises fully electrolytic hydrogen-based DRI (e.g. Nevertheless, this figure is a new peak for global steelmaking, and represents year-on-year growth of 3.4 percent. Our Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. However, in 2021, hot-rolled . The steel industry is expected to commence hydrogen use as early as 2027, with EU taking the lead. We intend the forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements in those sections. Wu said: The onus will be on mature economies to decarbonise quickly. In this scenario, some of the main elements that drive steel production now will remain constant: the regional split between the two main types of steel-processing infrastructure (basic oxygen furnaces and electric arc furnaces), the share of scrap used for a given output of steel in the regional basic-oxygen-furnace route, and the current regional scrap-collection rates. Decarbonisation initiatives in these regions will intensify in the second half of the forecast horizon. This will make up 5% emission savings of the 30% carbon emissions decline by 2050. A-. License: CC BY 4.0, The data from this chart is not available for download. From 2020 on, production will gradually decrease to about 510 Mt and 400 Mt in 2050, for the base-case and advanced scenarios, respectively. Commercial BF-BOF includes traditional coal-, gas- and charcoal-based blast furnaces, with and without top-pressure recovery turbines, without CCUS. Commercial DRI-EAF includes gas- and coal-based DRI without CCUS, including that with a proportion of blended electrolytic hydrogen; in some regions (particularly the United States), this route has a high ratio of scrap to DRI inputs. This imperative has profound implications for the mining and metal industry. Note that predictions can be wrong, and that analysts' steel price forecasts shouldn't be used . It predicts waves of regulation in Europe, the U.S., and China to mandate increased recycling in the steel production process. This includes our previously announced Memorandum of Understanding with Equinor to jointly study the potential for carbon capture and storage and hydrogen development in the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia region, as well as the recently announced alliance facilitated by IN-2-Market focusing on establishing a regional low-carbon and hydrogen industrial hub in the Northern Appalachian Region. 11 as a consequenceand leaving aside environmental issues and any potential public concerns and investor fallout from not meeting carbon dioxide emission targetsthe industry is likely to see the first large-scale We compared two scenarios, keeping a green line and true change. The first scenario assumes that the current steel market will in many parts remain constant, and the second assumes a more sustainable world in which significantly more recycling occurs and use of resources is more circular. In 2019, World Steel reported that 865 megatons of scrap were available, compared to a global demand of 1,889 megatons. Increased deployment of carbon-free energy sources such as nuclear, hydro, solar, and wind power, Increased ability of the grid to transport electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed, and. 3.3 Global Steel Production Volume by Region 3.4 Global Steel Consumption Volume 3.5 Global Steel Consumption Volume Forecast 3.6 Global Steel Consumption Volume by Region 3.7 Global Steel Export . In the second scenario, the focus on recycling and the consequent sharp increase in demand for scrap will reduce demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal beginning in 2020 and approximating today's levels by 2050. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. Left unchecked and unaccounted for, this growth would see a concurrent increase in energy demand and carbon emissions. Solutions. In the true change scenario, the use of scrap increases significantly in both main processing routes. In the coming weeks, Rethink Energy will release its Future of Steel report to address the penetration of these decarbonizing technologies in key markets, and the implications the transition will have on stakeholders throughout the steel and energy sectors. (See Exhibit 2.). The scrap ratio will continue to increase from 2020 to 2030 in China and is expected to reach 0.366 by 2030. In India, which is in an earlier stage of economic growth, the figure is below 20%. Annual production for China was 870.8 million metric tons of crude steel in 2017 . The key to success is understanding what the future holds. In 2016 and 2017 China maintained the status of the leader of steel-producing nations.
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