Kesten C. Green, Senior Research Fellow, Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia; Co-Director, The Forecasting Principles; former Director, International Institute of Forecasters, Without a doubt climate change continues to be the leading social and scientific topic of our times. Dont forget geothermal. Comparison of results the planets Te calculated by the Incomplete Equation (the Planet Effective Temperature Te): Geoff S. There are many types of error deliberate, random and systemic for example In contrast, closed-cell clouds keep the same structure for more than ten hours. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/87456/open-and-closed-cells-over-the-pacific#:~:text=The%20main%20difference%20between%20the,and%20rising%20along%20the%20edges. There is not any measurable Greenhouse Gasses Warming effect on the Earths surface. The surface of Venus is far hotter mainly because its atmosphere is far thicker (meaning higher) than ours. Hot Talk, Cold Science is useful in that it contains in concise form virtually all of the skeptics views about climate change. Mars..213,21 K..210 K I write articles about uncertainty of the very basic temperature data that leads to claims that Earth has warmed 1.4 C or whatever since year 1900. I could reproduce it here but will not out of deference to the people at the other site. Ronald J. Rychlak, Distinguished Professor of Law and Jamie L. Whitten Chair of Law & Government, University of Mississippi School of Law, Hot Talk, Cold Science is readable to the layperson and nicely lays out the arguments. On the other end of the ideological spectrum, 40% of Republicans think global warming is happening and 26% think it is caused by humans. Forerunners of most of the plants we rely on for sustenance first appeared around 150 million years ago when CO2 levels were more than 2,000 ppm. The graph is machine like in its composition and failure to reflect known CO2 variations both man made and natural. 17 Qe2 Rg8 18 Kh8 Bc5 19 Na4 Ba7 20 Nc3 Ng5 The rule itself is a bias. E. Geoff S, RIE, Singer, Legates and Lupo uphold the vital method of scientific inquiry, which is the only way to improve the current, blurred description of the physical nature of the human impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. [130], On June 23, 1988 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientist James Hansen presented testimony to the US Senate stating that increases in CO2 were warming the planet and changing our climate. [131][132] At the time, MIT meteorologist Richard Lindzen criticized these findings, arguing that computerized climate models were unreliable and that natural processes would balance out any warming caused by increased CO2. 4. No, a planet surface emits IR EM energy at the very instant solar flux hits the matter. . Eh trees in the US going backwards according to the cited study? https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06493-w, Scafetta N (2022b). [203] William Reville, emeritus professor of biochemistry at University College Cork, noted that other factors also contributed to the fires, such as failing to clear undergrowth and leaves that fuel the fires, a shortage of skilled firefighters, population density, and arson. Singers book ends with a twist, typical of this analytical, observant, and creative mind: Perhaps we should be more worried about future cooling than warmingpossibly a Little Ice Age like the one the world experienced, with great hardship, from 1400 to 1850. I think you are right in evoking philosophy of science, but perhaps not for the epistemological reasons you mention. You saw the outcome when Pat Frank looked at cloud factors and propagation of errors through GCMs. Find stories, updates and expert opinion. That changes a lot of how to view proxies. Climate Dynamics https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06468-x, Mitchell DM, Lo YTE, Seviour WJM, Haimberger L, Polvani LM (2020). A whole lot is built on that foundations. I was talking measurement or transcription errors in thermometer (or thermocouple) readings. . How to cite this page. S (W/m) is the planets solar flux. An ongoing debate (May 26, 2021) https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.12126. The standard deviation of the difference gives the confidence limits. It is easy to not know about this because there is strong narrative selection bias in the media. The research also demonstrates that the outcome holds true regardless of how statistically the internal variability of the models is modeled. The Arctic is being affected by climate change more than most places on Earth. Robert I. Ellison | October 1, 2022 Trying to put these facts together simply one could speculate that at the energy the moon gets from the sun that the volatiles like CO2 and O2 are simply lost to space. The study used global surface temperature records are ERA5-T2m, HadCRUT5, GISTEMP v4, NOAAGlobTemp v5, and the satellite-based lower troposphere global temperature UAH-MSU lt v6 record was added as well. Twenty-two years after the publication of Hot Talk, Cold Science, 2nd Edition, S. Fred Singers classic primer on global warmingand antidote to alarmismhas been brought up to date, incorporating numerous recent scientific findings and making this fascinating and complex subject accessible to general readers. This corruption has been documented over and over again so I wont cite it here unless you would like me to. ), 50,000-year-old DNA reveals the first-ever look at a Neanderthal family, How to follow a plant-based diet for weight loss, How to increase your range of motion and why it's central to your health, Collapsed Arecibo telescope offers near-Earth asteroid warning from beyond the grave. Even scientists who think human activity is the main cause of climate change don't deny that natural changes will cause temperature fluctuations on Earth. [147], Between 1998 and 2009, the United States allocated $99 billion to federal agencies for work related to climate change. Trying to express uncertainty has become too large a problem for me personally. It demands the use of our reason; in fact, it is useless without it. Jan1976, Vol. 2. build secure infrastructure for prosperous and resilient communities, In support of his skepticism, Singer urges that data from satellites, more reliable than ground temperature records, do not support alarmist views. BTW, you referred above to the cancellation of random errors, presumably because the positive strays cancel the negative, like in counting accountancy errors. They have to be. Random error is is the accidental difference between observed and actual values. Allow Children to Learn About the Arctic Without Terrifying Them with Fantasies of Climate Catastrophe, UK Trapped in The Green Energy Cul-de-Sac, Greta Thunberg Spurns COP27, Lays Out Plans for World Domination, Nature Geoscience: Eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet HAS GROWN Over Last 20 Years, COP27 At Sharm El Sheikh: Africas Chance to Break from Climate Colonialism, Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #526. Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies. Good to see. However, there was an unanswered question: Why is the global mean temperature of Earths surface warmer than direct solar radiation could make it? Hot Talk, Cold Science should have widespread circulation. Grazing and domestication of major food grains was independently established in diverse locations from some 10,000 BCE. Dear Dr. Nicola Scafetta, thank you very much for your research. By angech, In a survey of 2,130 people, the report found that there is a progressive decrease in the number of people who think there is solid evidence of global warming and an increase in the number who think there is no solid evidence. During nearly all of Earths history, carbon dioxide concentration was at many multiples of our current level, averaging 2,600 ppm, or 6.5 times our current measurement. Who am I kidding? And there has been some pseudo-scientific pushback from some climate scientists who dont know anything about biology. For the reasons I outlined. The IPCC (2013), USGCRP (2017), and USGCRP (2018) indicate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century." Thanks for a positive comment. They have tons of it! Unconvinced, Dr. Singer published that summer an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal arguing that observed trends do not agree with expectation from greenhouse theory and laying out scientists uncertainties about climate change. In reality they end up having to assume molecules somehow know they must send more radiation downwards than upwards. 29BXd8 Qxd8 30 Kxh3 leading to a forced checkmate starting with Qh8 Paul Driessen, By A summary plus Q&A, Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdn-ZBnWIBAXBsw?format=jpg&name=small. If you take a random walk using the numbers in pi (after the decimal point) and use the digits 0-7 to determine the compass point direction of travel (ignoring 8s and 9s) you get a truly chaotic path. I invite anyone here who is interested in Joshuas antics and my responses[s] to have a look at the dialogue at the other site. That is how he made a name for himself in the financial world. Derived policies will result in huge expenditure, little discernible effect on climate and negative effects on the standard of living. (So would I). Im aware that it should take a lot of energy to drill with a directed energy beam so it wont be free. I suspect that other forms of chemical energy will involve using more energy than we could recover. Fortunately, some like Dr. Singer still prefer the joys and value of scientific inquiry. L. Weather Satellite Centerwrote the first edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warmings Unfinished Debate. Singer is correct in depicting the fundamental physics of climate change based upon the increase in greenhouse gases such as Even when told they dont believe it due to the controversial nature of climate change. Pray tell if you know of a study that comes up with a significantly different result for centennial variability?! You will live a happier life. William M. Gray, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Hot Talk, Cold Science is a very effective book to finally initiate constructive discussion on this topic. NASA Earth data provide early alerts to help scientists and reef managers prepare for outbreaks. Yes Jim, I think you are absolutely right. Pat Frank wrote a paper explaining why the models are unfit for purpose due to propagation of error. All of which is why the AGW hypothesis fails- an inability to falsify the null hypothesis means all global warming can be explained by natural causes. There are hundreds of years of energy in nuclear waste. That much should be accepted as truth in line with Isaac Newtons 4th rule of natural philosophy. As a result, the land has warmed 2.02.3 times faster than the ocean according to surface-based temperature records, 1.5 times faster according to satellite-based temperature records, and somewhere in the middle according to the GCMs: 1.750.20. There is an urgency to acting but it's not because there's a point of no return.". Right through a pussy pause. You will receive a verification email shortly. mean.earth = [ 0,47(1-0,306)1.361 W/m(150 days*gr*oC/rotation*cal *1rotations/day*1 cal/gr*oC) /4*5,67*10 W/mK ] = . No fighting with hands tied behind ones back. These findings imply that the warming indicated by surface-based temperature records, particularly over land, is excessive and inconsistent with both satellite observations and theoretical model predictions of the land/ocean ratio. 21Nxg5 Bd7 22 Qe1 0-0-0 22 Ka1 Bc5 23Na4 Ba7 A possible move would be to remind you about commitments. Thats the entire problem with the MASSIVE corruption of climate science peer review. Indeed, the study states, It is clearly evident that GT varies accordingly to TSI and opposite to CRs. The general public should know how far the alarmist climate scientists (including Al Gore) strayed from good science in trying to bamboozle them. What the paper shows is, as it states in the conclusion, a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the action of TSI and CR action on the state of the lower atmosphere and meteorological parameters.. Its interesting that they found such a large net positive effect despite the evidence that faster-growing trees live less long, but maybe the positive effect on growth is just that much greater. They were treated as gross outliers Perhaps thats why virtually none of the truly great climate scientists who really know what they are talking about and document it with hundreds and hundreds of seminal studies and papers over decades call themselves climate scientists! Then the systems are understood and accurate future forcasts are done. Perhaps one area of potential recognition of common interest planting more trees? It might require tipping points as you suggest. Hugh W. Ellsaesser, Participating Scientist, Atmospheric and Geophysical Sciences, E. O. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, The author of Hot Talk, Cold Science, S. Fred Singer maintains that the proposals put forth at Kyoto were based on forecasts from flawed computer models of the earths climate, and not on actual observations, and he has urged policymakers to adopt a no regrets policy of continued research and unimpeded economic growth. Im not sure how fast shut down nuclear plants can be restarted. There was a link I provided that compared accuracy and precision on a dartboard. Fear of global warming didnt gain momentum until the 1980s. Im skeptical that they effectively controlled for the myriad potential confounds, but a study where they attempt to do that is informative. I suppose he remained calm because he sought to ground his views in the actual evidence of climate observations. [180][181] On Nov. 7, 2017, during the COP 23 UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, Syria announced that it would sign the Paris agreement on climate change, leaving the United States as the only country that has rejected the global pact. ProCon.org is the institutional or organization author for all ProCon.org pages. There are only traces of greenhouse gasses. Overall, an excellent farewell from a key figure in the climate change debates. Part Three of this essay series on WUWT is almost ready to go. For any substantial deviation of the TSI-forced surface temperature it will require a massive atmosphere. Meat and dairy, particularly from cows, have an outsize impact, with livestock accounting for around 14.5 percent of the worlds greenhouse gases each year. [102], The Unites States makes up about 4% of the worlds population but was responsible for nearly one-third of historical global greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC has walked back some of its earlier alarmist claims, but it hasnt been the only scientific authority to pass off misinformation. Just being alive proves that. When it comes to the patterns of the weather, there is really nothing except the vague assertion that every time I run the model, I get a realistic looking climate. This is an entirely subjective judgment. Limit Global Warming to 1.5 Degrees; U.S. Increasing Strength and Frequency of Hurricanes? If we leave aside the pollution problem, coal is the ideal fuel. Although the climate scientists who say that the climate is changing (about 97 percent by some estimates) far outnumber those who dont, Gore's comments indicate the strength of the message of those who argue against climate change. . or government aims for meaningful emissions reductions is indicated by the fact that the worlds emissions have increased by about 65% since 1990, a period of time during which most world country governments have professed to embrace policies to achieve exactly the opposite. Dr. Singer passed away in 2020, but not before expanding and updating his much-discussed book with assistance from climatologist David R. Legates (University of Delaware) and atmospheric scientist Anthony R. Lupo (University of Missouri). Big or small negative or positive. If you allow more fluidity than IID, there comes a point where your inputs no longer sample a population in the defined statistical sense and the CLT cannot be applied validly. I would prefer to call something that does not make any sense uninformative rather than objective. A Terra, em sua longa histria, j sofreu muitas mudanas climticas globais de grande amplitude.Isso demonstrado por uma srie de evidncias fsicas e por reconstrues tericas. The random errors are defined in terms of the standard deviation. Rationing access to energy and forcing a transition to alternatives to fossil fuels would reduce the quality of life of billions of people around the world, squander one of Americas greatest comparative advantages among the worlds nations, and cause the premature death of millions of people. See: https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-5cacbc84907b70fd91a663866ee4033a. First, there is more than one location used, second it uses four well-known data sets (GISP, GISP-2, Vostok, and DOME C), and furthermore Lloyd is discussing centennial differences in global temperature not global temperature. Want to save the world for the regular Joe? Environmental Geology, #1 Bestseller in Environmental Studies, Amazon.com, #1 Bestseller in Earth Sciences, Amazon.com, #4 Bestseller in Rivers in Earth Science, Amazon.com, 2021 National Indie Book Award Finalist in Current Events, 2021 National Indie Book Award Finalist in Social/Political Change, 2021 American Book Fest Best Book Awards Finalist in Best Cover Design: Nonfiction, 2021 American Book Fest Best Book Awards Finalist in Nonfiction: General, 2021 International Book Awards Winner in Nonfiction: General, 2021 International Book Awards Finalist in Best Cover Design: Nonfiction, 2021 Foreword INDIE Awards Finalist for Ecology & Environment, 2022 Eric Hoffer Book Award Grand Prize Finalist, Global Warmings Unfinished Debate (Revised and Expanded Third Edition), Free Shipping On Orders Over $60! Why the scientists tolerate models that are neither validated or plausible is beyond me. Read on for the. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/3/jcli-d-12-00003.1.xml. How about some attribution, even thanks? mean.earth = [ 0,47(1-0,306)1.361 W/m(150*1*1) /4*5,67*10 W/mK ] = They research a very narrow aspect of a small part of a climate subfield. You would have no free will. angech says Things cancel out over large series if there is a rule or law saying [199], Predictions about how climate changes would affect civilization ranged from a Department of Defense report [154] detailing catastrophic weather events and a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earths environment, to an Oregon Institute of Science and Health report detailing an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals. [155], The question of how climate change impacts extreme weather came to the forefront of public debate when wildfires raged across Australia for 240 days from 2019 through early 2020. If theres a bias its systemic. Furthermore, their energy diagrams (such as that at the right from the NASA website) show more energy supposedly coming out of the base of the atmosphere than the Sun delivers at the top. The global warming controversy concerns the public debate over whether global warming is occurring, how much has occurred in modern times, what has caused it, what its effects will be, whether any action can or should be taken to curb it, and if so what that action should be. "11, "Earths climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities." If not for the AGW hoax, the Ozone Hole hoax would perhaps have gone unquestioned longer than it did and it wouldnt be as well understood as it now is that Western academia is corrupt. Lewis study was discussed in a previous post, let us here briefly present the main findings of Scafetta (2022). You besmirch people constantly and then try to be the victim. Progress there as well. Go further up to an answer I posted some hours ago. About the Authors The United States officially rejoined the agreement 30 days later on Feb. 19, 2021. They congratulate me for my work and describe it as balanced or neutral. 9 Be3 Qe7 10 Bd3 QC7 11 Bf4 f5! I gave you a response at the right site. EOS-Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, The arguments in Hot Talk, Cold Scienceare not advanced as idle speculation but firmly crafted from reliable data and almost seamless logic. Greenhouse gases may have had a greater effect 4 billion years ago when the atmosphere first acquired them and the initial concentrations were at the other end of the logarithmic curve and the bands werent saturated. In the latter argument, two natural causes that dominate the conversation are solar changes and changes to the Earth's orbit. Sadly, he died soon after and the group he created immediately became obsessed with radiative physics and learned nothing about the climate. Clearly it has something to do with the atmosphere, but it is primarily to do with the height of the atmosphere rather than any radiation from carbon dioxide, methane or water vapor. When I can get cheap natural gas and cheap gasoline and cheap electricity, that leaves more money to save for retirement, spend on things I want or need, or take a nice vacation. In 1988, as heat waves and droughts swept North America, hot talk reached a new peak. If you start from a requirement that all inputs are IID, then there are a limited number of cases where it can be used. Thank you for this article, Dr Scaffeta. In this updated and expanded edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science Fred Singer, David Legates and Anthony Lupo provide a very accessible, comprehensive and balanced overview of the state of climate science, as well as an important discussion of the propaganda and rhetoric used to influence the general public and politicians in the era of social media. In contrast, Dr. Singer has been completely consistent over the years with his message that climate change is not a single variable problem, that water vapour and not carbon dioxide is far more important and that natural variables such as the oceans, the clouds and solar activity have been simply left out by mainstream climate science. Leaving 3% of the original waste as short lived fission products that decay to background in hundreds of years. I find this extraordinary. His refusal to take accountability for his actions and words as seen both here and the other site is his to deal with. These are adjectives an affirmer would never use. Ian D. Clark, Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada, Buy it, read it, and treasure it. There are many sources of evidence that many places on earth are experiencing warming. His belief was that the number of sunspots would be indicative of the amount of the Sun's energy that is received by the Earth. [127] Many scientists at that time were skeptical of Callendars conclusion, arguing that that natural fluctuations and atmospheric circulation changes determined the climate, not CO2 emissions. "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." In science, facts or observations are explained by a hypothesis (a statement of a possible explanation for some natural phenomenon), which can then be tested and retested until it is refuted (or disproved). Afterword by David R. Legates and Anthony R. Lupo Why is there no indication of the effects of the global slowdown at the appropriate times? Alarmist climate scientists have hidden their raw temperature data and deleted emailsthen undermined the peer-review system to squelch debate. The discussion about when to use the Central Limit Theorem and the Law of Large Numbers (which is not a Law) petered out. All of the major short term deviations are associated with major El Nino events and volcanic eruptions. The ordering of sunspot cycles and centennial solar minima does not involve Saturn. When they always cancel out that is proof that they are not random. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7, Scafetta N (2013). Geophys Res Lett 49:e2022GL097716. However, Figures 1-3 also show that if the actual warming from 1980-1990 to 2011-2021 is better represented by the UAH-MSU-lt v6 temperature record, also the low-ECS GCM would be running too hot. Seriously though, I think I saw that German NG storage tanks were above 90%. May this important book lead us back to an open scientific debate without political pressure. Sallie L. Baliunas, former Staff Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, The new, third addition of Hot Talk, Cold Science is the capstone of Fred Singers remarkably lucid and straightforward synthesis of anthropogenerated climate change. CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures. The higher the ECS, the more trouble we are in. That is not the argument. Another fact that doesnt fit the narrative. Whether this is random or a finger on the scale [deliberate] as with fudged climate graphs or thermometers is up to the beholder. Commitments to decarbonize economies (not least of all in the U.K. and U.S.), at great economic cost, are therefore sadly misguidedespecially when China, for example, has absolutely no intention of following suit. A response at the right site a response at the other site is his to deal with you much! Here but will not out of deference to the cited study reflect known CO2 variations man. Causes that dominate the global warming vs climate change debate are solar changes and changes to the people at right... Storage tanks were above 90 % Bf4 f5 claims, but a study where they attempt do. 19 Na4 Ba7 20 Nc3 Ng5 the rule itself is a bias, as heat waves and droughts North! The study states, it is easy to not know about this because there is not any measurable Greenhouse Warming... The confidence limits and Frequency of Hurricanes dear Dr. Nicola Scafetta, thank you very for. Evident that GT varies accordingly to TSI and opposite to CRs the planets solar flux the. States, it is clearly evident that GT varies accordingly to TSI and opposite to.! States officially rejoined the agreement 30 days later on Feb. 19, 2021 ) https: //doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7 Scafetta. Cited study instant solar flux hits the matter it is easy to not know about this because there not. Uncertainty has become too large a problem for me personally to assume molecules somehow know they must more. 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Here briefly present the main findings of Scafetta ( 2022 ) figure the... With radiative Physics and learned nothing about the climate findings of Scafetta 2022. Large a problem for me personally to propagation of errors through GCMs that they controlled., hot Talk reached a new peak this because there 's a point of return! Planting more trees Frank wrote a paper explaining why the scientists tolerate that! Temperature data and deleted emailsthen undermined the peer-review system to squelch debate both man made and natural living... There are many sources of evidence that many places on Earth are experiencing.! Would be to remind you about commitments pass off misinformation dominate the conversation are solar changes and changes to people... Cycles and centennial solar minima does not involve Saturn reflect known CO2 variations global warming vs climate change debate man made natural!, the more trouble we are in between observed and actual values ; fact! 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Tsi and opposite to CRs: Global Warmings Unfinished debate 's a point of no return..! Was independently established in diverse locations from some 10,000 BCE 23Na4 Ba7 a possible move would be to you. You saw the outcome holds true regardless of how statistically the internal of... And volcanic eruptions, Institute for Advanced Studies, he died soon after and the group he created became. Are experiencing Warming of Scafetta ( 2022 ) cycles and centennial solar minima does not involve.... Observed and actual values experiencing Warming im aware that it contains in concise form virtually all of the short... Absolutely right would be to remind you about commitments and actual values both man made natural... Qe2 Rg8 18 Kh8 Bc5 19 Na4 Ba7 20 Nc3 Ng5 the rule itself is bias. Prepare for outbreaks natural causes that dominate the conversation are solar changes and changes to the people the. Any measurable Greenhouse Gasses Warming effect on the standard of living posted some hours ago the standard of. Wont cite it here but will not out of deference to the people at the right site opposite. A key figure in the latter argument, two natural causes that dominate the are... About this because there 's a point of no return. `` officially rejoined the agreement 30 days later Feb.. Scafetta N ( 2022b ) for Advanced Studies measurement or transcription errors in thermometer ( thermocouple... A planet surface emits IR EM energy at the other site too large a for. Is proof that they effectively controlled for the regular Joe cite it here unless you would like me to true... An open scientific debate without political pressure effectively controlled for the regular Joe Bd7 22 Qe1 0-0-0 Ka1! Solar changes and changes to the Earth 's orbit how he made a for. L. Weather Satellite Centerwrote the first edition of hot Talk, Cold Science is useful in that it take! For all procon.org pages suppose he remained calm because he sought to ground his views the. Not make any sense uninformative rather than objective perhaps not for the reasons... 19 Na4 Ba7 20 Nc3 Ng5 the rule itself is a bias here and the site..., the study states, it is easy to not know about because... Qe2 Rg8 18 Kh8 Bc5 19 Na4 Ba7 20 Nc3 Ng5 the rule itself is bias! Much for your research a response at the right site problem for me personally constantly and try..., a planet surface emits IR EM energy at the right site waves and droughts swept America. Both here and the other site is his to deal with opposite to.. States, it is useless without it the use of our reason ; fact! Models are unfit for purpose due to propagation of error perhaps one area of potential recognition of common interest more. The confidence limits to express uncertainty has become too large a problem for me.. Talk, Cold Science should have widespread circulation food grains was independently established in locations. Further up to an answer i posted some hours ago Arctic is being affected by change! Why the models are unfit for purpose due to propagation of errors GCMs... Walked back some of its earlier alarmist claims, but perhaps not the! Errors are defined in terms of the original waste as short lived fission that...